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OpenTrials
Completed

NCT Number: NCT04574882

Using Digital Data to Predict CHD

This project seeks to identify and characterize features derived from digital data (e.g. social media, online search, mobile media) which are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and related risk factors, and develop models that use digital data and conventional predictive models to predict CHD risk and health care utilization.

Completed

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Key information

Age range

30 year–74 year

Sex eligibility

All sexes

Study type

Observational

Primary location

University of Pennsylvania Health System

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19101, United States

About this study

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the US. While secondary prevention approaches have improved longevity of patients, risk factors and adverse health behaviors (e.g., physical inactivity, smoking) are highly prevalent, and in most contemporary series, less than 1% of adults meet all factors of ideal CV health. The logistics and practicalities of meeting the goal of ideal CV health have not been clearly elucidated. Practice guidelines recommend using the Framingham risk score (FRS) or other risk prediction tools to classify patients' risk of CV disease. These models however are imprecise and there is increasing focus on identifying markers that provide better measures of risk. As digital platforms are increasingly used to document lifestyle and health behaviors, data from digital sources may provide a window into manifestations of novel risk factors and potentially a better characterization of existing risk factors. While it seems like a cliche to mention the profound impact of digital data on everyday lives, there is indeed great substance in the opportunities these new media provide for understanding behavioral, social, and environmental determinants of health. This project seeks to identify and characterize features derived from digital data (e.g. social media, online search, mobile media) which are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and related risk factors, and develop models that use digital data and conventional predictive models to predict CHD risk and health care utilization.

Who can participate

Healthy volunteers accepted: Yes

Only the study team can determine whether someone qualifies for participation.

Inclusion criteria

  • 30 - 74 years of age
  • Willing to sign informed consent
  • Primarily English speaking (for language analysis)
  • Has an account on any of the following digital data platforms (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter Reddit, Google (gmail), or smartphone or wearable device such as Apple Health, Fitbit, Samsung Health, MapMyFitness or Garmin) and willing to share data
  • If has social media account, Instagram or Facebook, willing to share historical and prospective data (60 days) If has Google (gmail) account, willing to download and share google takeout zip file
  • If has smartphone or wearable device, willing to share step data
  • Willing to share access to medical health records
  • Willing to share healthcare insurance information

Exclusion criteria

  • Patient does not meet age inclusion criteria above
  • Does not use and post on digital data sources we are studying or unwilling to donate data
  • Patient is in severe distress, e.g. respiratory, physical, or emotional distress
  • Patient is intoxicated, unconscious, or unable to appropriately respond to questions

Treatment and study plan

Survey

Other

Interested participants may complete the informed consent online. After informed consent, the participant will be asked to share the digital data types that they use (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Google search, step data) and then participants will complete a cross-sectional survey.

Primary outcomes

  1. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) Topics - Topics / Themes Discussed Between Patients With and Without Heart Disease

    Time frame: Through study completion, an average of 3 years

    The primary outcome is topics and features (derived using the LDA method for clustering language data).

    For each participant, we included all available Facebook wall posts from the start of their account history through data collection, regardless of whether they occurred before or after a CHD diagnosis. We examined associations between linguistic features (unigrams, LIWC categories, LDA topics) and cardiovascular case status (CHD presence vs absence) using Pearson correlation and logistic regression. Latent LDA, a systematic method to identify text-based themes, was applied to generate 200 clusters of co-occurring words ("topics"). For each feature type (unigram, LIWC category, LDA topic), we fit separate logistic regression models and calculated Pearson correlation coefficients to assess predictive value for case status. Each language-derived feature was encoded as a normalized frequency count per user to enable consistent comparison across participants.

Other outcomes

  1. CHD Event

    Time frame: Through study completion, an average of 3 years

    Reliability in predicting CHD related event in patient as measured by Framingham Risk Score.

    The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is a validated means of predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Input variables include age, cigarette smoking, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure measurement and treatment for hypertension. Point values are calculated based on each of these risks. A 10-year risk score can be derived as a percentage. Risk scores range from 0-20%.

    Low Risk: Less than 10% risk that you will develop a heart attack or die from coronary disease in the next 10 years.

    Intermediate risk: A 10 to 20% risk that you will develop a heart attack or die from coronary disease in the next 10 years.

    High Risk: A greater than 20% risk that you will develop a heart attack or die from coronary disease in the next 10 years.

  2. Health Care Utilization

    Time frame: Through study completion, an average of 3 years

    Prediction of cost for health care utilization between heart disease and non- heart disease subjects measured by insurance claims data

Sponsors and collaborators

Lead sponsor

University of Pennsylvania

Other

Registry information

Official study title

Using Digital Data to Predict Cardiovascular Health and Health Care Utilization

Important dates

Study start
2020
Primary completion
2025
Study completion
2025
First posted
Oct 5, 2020
Registry last updated
Nov 4, 2025

OpenTrials presents study information sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov. The official registry record should be consulted for the latest information.

View the official ClinicalTrials.gov record (opens in a new tab)

This listing is for discovery and informational purposes only. It is not medical advice, does not guarantee that a study is recruiting, and does not determine eligibility. Contact the study team and a qualified healthcare professional when considering participation.

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