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Completed

NCT Number: NCT05370313

The Impact of Innovative Tax Proposals on Purchase Patterns

This study will investigate the effect of four tax proposals (i.e. Tobacco Parity, Nicotine-Content, Harm-Reduction, and Modified Risk Tobacco Product-related taxes) on tobacco product purchasing patterns.

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Key information

Conditions

Cigarette Smoking Behavior Smoking Tobacco Smoking Tobacco Use

Age range

21 year and older

Sex eligibility

All sexes

Study type

Interventional

Phase

Not applicable

Primary location

Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, New York, United States

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About this study

This study experimentally examines the effects of largely untried integrated tax proposals. Four tax proposals will be modeled: Tobacco Parity, Nicotine-Content, Harm-Reduction, and MRTP. Tobacco products are placed into three tax tiers: high-, medium-, and no-tax, according to the goals of each proposal. In a within-subjects design, cigarette smokers will complete two control (market price) trials and four conditions in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace, representing each of the four tax proposals. Within each condition, taxes will be increased proportionally across 5 trials (relative to tax tier) to examine how cigarette purchasing, substitution, and poly-tobacco purchasing (i.e., diversity in products purchased) are affected.

Who can participate

Healthy volunteers accepted: No

Only the study team can determine whether someone qualifies for participation.

Inclusion criteria

  • provide informed consent
  • provide a breath carbon monoxide sample ≥ 8 ppm,
  • be at least 21 years of age (the legal age to purchase tobacco),
  • smoke at least 10 cigarettes daily, and
  • use other tobacco products less than weekly.

Exclusion criteria

  • report uncontrolled physical or mental health conditions (e.g., uncontrolled diabetes, high blood pressure, major depressive disorder, etc.),
  • use of smoking cessation medications (e.g., nicotine replacement, bupropion, varenicline) in the past 30 days,
  • report concrete, immediate plans to alter/quit using their usual tobacco products in the next 30 days,
  • be pregnant or lactating, or
  • have plans to move out of the area during the experiment.

Treatment and study plan

Market Price Condition (control)

Behavioral

Nicotine/tobacco products available in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace at market price. Cigarette taxes increased across trials at the same magnitudes used in the tax conditions.

Tobacco Parity Tax Condition

Behavioral

Tobacco products in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace are placed into three tax tiers: high-, medium-, and no-tax. In this condition, all tobacco products are placed in the high-tax tier while products that do not contain tobacco (e.g., herbal cigarettes and nicotine-free ENDS) are placed in the medium-tax tier. Nicotine Replacement Therapy products are placed in the no-tax tier.

Nicotine-Content Tax Condition

Behavioral

Tobacco products in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace are placed into three tax tiers: high-, medium-, and no-tax. In this condition, products with greater than 3 mg nicotine per single unit are placed in the high-tax tier, products with 0.6-3.0 mg/unit in the medium-tax tier, and those with 0.5 mg/unit or less in the no-tax tier.

Harm-Reduction Tax Condition

Behavioral

Tobacco products in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace are placed into three tax tiers: high-, medium-, and no-tax. In this condition, all combustible products with high abuse liability are placed in the high-tax tier. All non-combustible products or combustible products with low abuse liability are placed in the medium-tax tier. Nicotine Replacement Therapy products are placed in the no-tax tier.

Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) Tax Condition

Behavioral

Tobacco products in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace are placed into three tax tiers: high-, medium-, and no-tax. In this condition, all non-MRTP tobacco products are placed in the high-tax tier, MRTPs are placed in the medium-tax tier, and Nicotine Replacement Therapy products are placed in the no-tax tier.

Primary outcomes

  1. Quantity of Tobacco Products Purchased in the High-Tax Tier - Product demand (intensity and elasticity)

    Time frame: 1 day

    Purchasing of high-tax tier products in the ETM conditions will be fit to a commonly used exponential demand model that quantifies the relationship between the multiplicative tax factor (e.g., 2 times base tax rate) and purchasing of high-tax tier products. This demand analysis (which assumes a negative association between price and purchasing) will be used in the high-tax tier products because participants will be conventional cigarette smokers and these products (when available) will always be in that tier. As such, we expect participants to defend their purchase of cigarettes in the high-tax tier under a variety of conditions. Demand estimates will be obtained for each participant in each tax proposal.

  2. Quantity of Tobacco Products Purchased in the Medium- and No-tax tiers - Product substitution (intensity and slope)

    Time frame: 1 day

    Purchasing of medium- and no-tax products in the ETM conditions will be fit to ordinary least squares regression for each tax tier. This yields slope measures of each tax tier's product purchasing, wherein more positive slopes indicate greater substitution (i.e., greater increases in purchasing of substitutes as tax magnitudes increase). Ordinary least squares regression is used here to model purchasing in the medium- and no-tax tier because it is capable of measuring positive slopes, indicative of substitution, and distinguishing these tiers from those that do not show substitution. In the event this relationship is non-linear, we will consider other relevant models.

Sponsors and collaborators

Lead sponsor

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Other

Collaborators

  • Roswell Park Cancer Institute

Registry information

Official study title

ETM Taxes Study 1: The Impact of Innovative Tax Proposals on Purchase Patterns

Important dates

Study start
2023
Primary completion
2025
Study completion
2025
First posted
May 11, 2022
Registry last updated
Sep 18, 2025

OpenTrials presents study information sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov. The official registry record should be consulted for the latest information.

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This listing is for discovery and informational purposes only. It is not medical advice, does not guarantee that a study is recruiting, and does not determine eligibility. Contact the study team and a qualified healthcare professional when considering participation.

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