Prospective Validation of the SWEET Tool for Pre-diction of Preintervention ERCP Procedure Time.

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a frequently performed procedure worldwide. The procedure combines endoscopy and X-ray imaging to diagnose and treat problems in the bile and pancreatic ducts, most commonly stones or strictures.

Until the recent publication of Waldthaler et al., there was little evidence about what patient- and procedure-related factors determine a priori the duration of an ERCP. Data from 74 248 ERCPs performed from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the Swedish National Quality Registry (GallRiks) to identify variables predictive for ERCP time using linear regression analyses and root mean squared error (RMSE) as a loss function. Ten variables were combined to create an estimation tool for ERCP duration: the SWedish Estimation of ERCP Time (SWEET) tool. Having a predictive tool for estimating the procedure time of an invasive endoscopic procedure offers several valuable benefits across clinical, operational, and patient-centered domains: improved scheduling and resource allocation by optimized operating room and endos-copy suite scheduling, reduced delays and less overbooking or underutilization. It helps allocate the right number of staff (nurses, anesthesiologists) based on procedure complexity and minimizes unexpected extensions that lead to staff fatigue or overtime pay.