NCT Number: NCT06289075
The Objective of this retrospective multicenter- study is to forecast Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models and historical, national and international ICU databases and population databases.
Interested in participating?
Request Info1 day–120 year
All sexes
Observational
Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia, 50937, Germany
Location status: Recruiting
Sandra E Stoll, MD
CONTACT
Sandra E Stoll, MD
CONTACT
+491735697566 ext. Stoll
Sandra E Stoll, MD
PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR
Adequate resource allocation in Intensive Care Medicine is especially challenging due to limited resources and increasing demands for ICU capacities due to an aging population and medical advances. Several studies in the past were trying to predict ICULOS using different models. The Objective and aim of our retrospective multicenter study are to forecast ICU length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models.
To achieve this objective, historical ICU data spanning from 2005 to 2023 is collected from international ICU databases worldwide as well as population data from national and international databases and employ different statistical forecasting models (ARIMA-Model (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), logistic regression, Poisson Regression and ETS (Exponential smoothing)) to make these predictions. The Validity of the 4 different models is assessed with out-of-time-cross validity by splitting the data in 2 subsets for generation and testing of the model in a ratio of approximately 75:25 of the dataset. The most valid model of the 4 different models will be chosen. The statistical analysis follows he guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER Statement) von Stevens et al. from the year 2016.
The ultimate goal of this project is to provide valuable insights to healthcare system decision-makers worldwide regarding future requirements of ICU beds and ventilator capacities. With this insight we want to enable healthcare- system decision makers worldwide to proactively anticipate and allocate appropriate ICU resources for the future.
Healthy volunteers accepted: No
Only the study team can determine whether someone qualifies for participation.
Inclusion criteria
Exclusion criteria
ICU treatment
Other names: ICU treatment
Time frame: 2024-2040
Forecasting mechanical ventilation for the next 16 years
Time frame: 2024-2040
Forecasting ICU stay for the next 16 years
Contact information is provided by the study sponsor or research team.
Julius D Neubert
CONTACT
Sandra Emily Stoll, DR. AP
CONTACT
University Hospital of Cologne
Other
Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040 Using Statistical Projection Models and Retrospective Data From International Databases From 2005-2023 (PrognostICate- Study).
Acronym: PrognostICate
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View the official ClinicalTrials.gov record (opens in a new tab)This listing is for discovery and informational purposes only. It is not medical advice, does not guarantee that a study is recruiting, and does not determine eligibility. Contact the study team and a qualified healthcare professional when considering participation.
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