Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Using Polygenic Risk Score

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia worldwide, affecting approximately 34 million individuals. While early diagnosis and treatment can significantly reduce the risk of stroke, paroxysmal AF often goes undetected due to its intermittent nature. Current screening guidelines lack clear recommendations on which populations benefit most from AF screening and what screening strategies are optimal.

Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic loci associated with AF susceptibility, and the SNP heritability of AF has been estimated at approximately 22%. A polygenic risk score (PRS) aggregates the effects of thousands of common genetic variants across the genome to estimate an individual's genetic predisposition to AF. Prior studies have demonstrated that PRS can stratify AF risk independently of conventional clinical risk factors, suggesting its potential utility in targeted screening strategies.

Genetic Assessment At enrollment, a blood sample of 5cc is collected for DNA extraction via centrifugation. A SNP array is performed using a commercially available SNP chip kit. The resulting genotype data are used to calculate a weighted PRS for AF based on previously published genome-wide association study results.

ECG Monitoring In addition to standard 12-lead ECG and 7-day continuous ECG patch monitoring performed at enrollment, all participants are provided with a six-lead handheld ECG device (HATIV® P30, VUNO Inc., Seoul, Republic of Korea). Participants perform self-ECG recordings at least once or twice per week and additionally upon symptom onset for 1 year after enrollment.

Prediction Model Development At the end of follow-up, participants are classified into AF-diagnosed and non-AF groups. A scoring system integrating clinical history and PRS will be developed to predict AF occurrence and its predictive performance will be evaluated.

Inclusion criteria

• Patients with symptoms suggestive of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, such as intermittent palpitations or chest discomfort
• Asymptomatic patients aged 60 or older with at least one of the following risk factors for atrial fibrillation: hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, sleep apnea, hyperthyroidism, obesity (BMI greater than 30), or chronic alcohol dependence (drinking more than 3 times per week)

Exclusion criteria

• Age under 20 years or over 80 years
• Moderate or severe cognitive impairment
• Previously diagnosed with atrial fibrillation prior to study enrollment
• Does not consent to participate in the study