Post-Hoc Enthusiasm and Wariness

The post-hoc fallacy (also termed the post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc fallacy) has been recognized for centuries with endless relevance. The general concept in medical care is that patients who improve after a treatment are not necessary patients who improve because of a treatment. Modern medicine provides multiple opportunities to examine such pitfalls of judgment due to the prevailing uncertainty, incompleteness of our understanding pathogenic mechanisms, and natural tendency to connect treatments to outcomes. In this study, we will investigate whether judgments about vitamin supplementation might demonstrate the post-hoc fallacy.

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Key information

Conditions

Health Behavior Behavior

Sex eligibility

All sexes

Study type

Interventional

Phase

Not applicable

About this study

We plan to conduct a brief survey of pharmacies portraying a patient in two slightly different versions. One version will portray the patient who feels better after starting a vitamin supplement whereas another version will portray the patient who feels unchanged after starting a vitamin supplement. The patients will be randomly assigned to participants and otherwise contain identical information. Judgments will be measured by eliciting participants recommendation about continuing the vitamin (Appendix_Script).

Who can participate

Healthy volunteers accepted: Yes

Only the study team can determine whether someone qualifies for participation.

Inclusion criteria

Community pharmacist

Exclusion criteria

Outside Ontario

Treatment and study plan

Patient self-report

Other

Simulated patient following structured script

Primary outcomes

Response variable in each survey is a binary recommendation whether to continue the vitamin supplement or discontinue the vitamin supplement

Time frame: Short-term (less than 5 minutes)

Health provider clinical recommendation

Study contacts

Contact information is provided by the study sponsor or research team.

Donald A Redelmeier, MD, MSc

CONTACT

[email protected]

4164806999

Sponsors and collaborators

Lead sponsor

Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre

Other

Registry information

Acronym: PHEW

Important dates

Study start: 2023
Primary completion: 2023
Study completion: 2028
First posted: Jan 17, 2023
Registry last updated: Jan 17, 2023

OpenTrials presents study information sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov. The official registry record should be consulted for the latest information.

View the official ClinicalTrials.gov record (opens in a new tab)

This listing is for discovery and informational purposes only. It is not medical advice, does not guarantee that a study is recruiting, and does not determine eligibility. Contact the study team and a qualified healthcare professional when considering participation.

Published trials that share one or more normalized conditions with this study.

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