Pancreatic Disease Burden in Older Adults (1990-2040)

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the investigators analyzed age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for pancreatic cancer and pancreatitis in adults aged ≥70 years across 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex, Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), health system performance, and region. The investigators calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), applied age-period-cohort modelling, and used Bayesian models to project future burden. Attributable burdens for key risk factors were also estimated.

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Key information

Conditions

Pancreatic Cancer Digestive System Diseases Digestive System Neoplasms Endocrine Gland Neoplasms Endocrine System Diseases Neoplasms Neoplasms by Site Pancreatic Diseases Pancreatic Neoplasms Pancreatitis

Age range

70 year and older

Sex eligibility

All sexes

Study type

Observational

Who can participate

Healthy volunteers accepted: No

Only the study team can determine whether someone qualifies for participation.

Inclusion criteria

Diagnosis with pancreatic cancer or pancreatitis
Diagnosis in 1990 through 2021
Age 70+ years

Exclusion criteria

Age <70 years
Other non-pancreatic diseases

Treatment and study plan

Natural history

Biological

Natural history of pancreatic diseases

Primary outcomes

Incidence

Time frame: 1990-2021

The number of new cases of a givencause during a given period in aspecified population. It is xpressed as the number of newcases in a year divided by the mid-year population size.
Deaths

Time frame: 1990-2021

Deaths occurring in a population during a certain time period.
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)

Time frame: 1990-2021

The sum of years lost due to premature death (YLLs) and yearslived with disability (YLDs). DALYs are also defined as years of healthy life lost.

Sponsors and collaborators

Lead sponsor

Changhai Hospital

Other

Registry information

Official study title

Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Pancreatic Cancer and Pancreatitis Among Older Adults From 1990 to 2021 With Projections to 2040: A Comprehensive and Comparative Investigation

Important dates

Study start: 1990
Primary completion: 2021
Study completion: 2025
First posted: Sep 17, 2025
Registry last updated: Sep 17, 2025

OpenTrials presents study information sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov. The official registry record should be consulted for the latest information.

View the official ClinicalTrials.gov record (opens in a new tab)

This listing is for discovery and informational purposes only. It is not medical advice, does not guarantee that a study is recruiting, and does not determine eligibility. Contact the study team and a qualified healthcare professional when considering participation.

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Completed