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OpenTrials
Completed

NCT Number: NCT04460274

Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide

Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

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Key information

Conditions

COVID-19 Coronaviridae Infections Coronavirus Infections Infections Lung Diseases Nidovirales Infections Pneumonia Pneumonia, Viral RNA Virus Infections Respiratory Tract Diseases Respiratory Tract Infections Virus Diseases

Sex eligibility

All sexes

Study type

Observational

Primary location

Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital

Izmir, 35360, Turkey (Türkiye)

About this study

Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.

Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.

Who can participate

Healthy volunteers accepted: No

Only the study team can determine whether someone qualifies for participation.

Inclusion criteria

  • Confirmed case of Covid-19

Exclusion criteria

  • Cases not reported

Treatment and study plan

Model Building

Other

Model building

Model validation

Other

Model validation

Primary outcomes

  1. Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19

    Time frame: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020

Sponsors and collaborators

Lead sponsor

Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

Other Gov

Registry information

Official study title

Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study

Acronym: Covid19TmeSer

Important dates

Study start
2019
Primary completion
2020
Study completion
2020
First posted
Jul 7, 2020
Registry last updated
Jul 8, 2020

OpenTrials presents study information sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov. The official registry record should be consulted for the latest information.

View the official ClinicalTrials.gov record (opens in a new tab)

This listing is for discovery and informational purposes only. It is not medical advice, does not guarantee that a study is recruiting, and does not determine eligibility. Contact the study team and a qualified healthcare professional when considering participation.

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